Best prospects for independent and minor party success

December 4, 2025

Most winnable 2025 Federal seats excluding major parties across the 151 seats, ranked according to Sportbet odds, which has 39 seats with a non-major player on 10-1 or better to win.

Clarke (TAS): Andrew Wilkie has held it since 2010 and is recontesting. He won it in 2022 with a primary of 45.54% in an 8 person field and a whopping 72.12% of the 2PP ahead of Labor. Sportsbet had Wilkie on $1.005 with everyone else on $26.

Kennedy (QLD): Bob Katter is recontesting and won it in 2022 with a primary of 41.7% in a 6 person field and a healthy 63.3% of the 2PP ahead of the LNP. Sportsbet had Katter on $1.03 ahead of the Coalition on $9.

Melbourne (VIC): Green leader Adam Bandt had held it since 2013. Is recontesting and won it 2022 with a primary of 49.62% in a 9 person field and 60.15% of the 2PP ahead of Labor. Sportsbet had Bandt on $1.06 and then Labor on $7.

Warringah (NSW): Sportsbet had Zali Steggall on $1.06 ahead of the Liberals on $7.

Mayo (SA): Rebekah Sharkie Centre Alliance on $1.10 ahead of Liberals on $7.50.

Indi (VIC): Sportsbet had Helen Haines on $1.11, ahead of the Coalition on $5.25.

Wentworth (NSW): Allegra Spender on $1.17 ahead of Liberals on $4.25.

Mackellar (NSW): incumbent teal Sophie Scamps on $1.25 ahead of Libs on $3.50.

Fowler (NSW): incumbent independent Dai Le on $1.40 with Labor on $2.65.

Griffith (QLD): Greens incumbent $1.63 ahead of Labor on $2.25.

Goldstein (VIC): Sportsbet had Zoe Daniel on $1.63 and Liberal Tim Wilson on $2.10.

Curtin (WA): incumbent independent Kate Chaney on $1.66 ahead of Liberals on $2.10.

Cowper (NSW): challenging teal Caz Heise on $1.66 with incumbent Coalition on $2.05.

Bradfield (NSW): challenging teal Nicolette Boele on $1.63 ahead of Liberals on $2.15 with incumbent Paul Fletcher retiring.

Kooyong (VIC): Sportsbet had Monique Ryan and Amelia Hamer equal on $1.83 each.

Wannon (VIC): Liberal incumbent Dan Tehan was on $1.83 and challenging teal Alex Dyson was suspended at 1am on election day.

Wills (VIC): Sportsbet had Labor's incumbent Peter Khalil on $1.60 and Greens challenger Samantha Ratnam on $2.15.

Calare (NSW): Coalition $1.73 ahead of ex Nat Andrew Gee $2.35 and independent Kate Hook on $9.50.

McNamara (VIC): Sportsbet had Labor incumbent Josh Byrnes $1.73 on and Green Sonya Semmler on $2.62 and Liberal Benson Saulo on $6.50.

Ryan (QLD): challenging Liberal is on $2.10, ahead of incumbent Green on $2.75 and Labor on $3.90.

Brisbane (QLD): challenging Labor on $1.93 ahead of incumbent Green on $2.80 and Liberal on $4.25.

Richmond (NSW): Labor incumbent on $1.40 ahead of Greens on $3.

McPherson (QLD): incumbent LNP $1.33 ahead of independent Erchana Murray-Bartlett on $3.

Monash (VIC): new Liberal Mary Aldred on $1.52 ahead of disendorsed incumbent Liberal turned independent Russell Broadbent on $3.60 and teal Deb Leonard on $6.50.

Flinders (VIC): Liberal incumbent Zoe McKenzie on $1.24 ahead of independent Ben Smith on $3.70.

Forrest (WA): incumbent Liberal on $1.31 ahead of independent Sue Chapman on $3.90.

Fremantle (WA): Labor incumbent on $1.12 ahead of independent Kate Hulett on $5.

Groom (QLD): LNP incumbent $1.12 ahead of independent Suzie Holt on $5.

Cooper (VIC): Labor $1.08 vs Greens on $6.50.

Grey (SA): Coalition incumbent on $1.10 ahead of independent Anita Kuss on $6.50.

Hunter (NSW): Labor on $1.19, then Coalition on $6.50 and One Nation $7.50.

Fisher (QLD): Liberal incumbent on $1.04 ahead of independent Keryn Jones on $8.

Casey (VIC): Liberals on $1.14 ahead of independent Claire Ferres-Miles $8.

Moore (WA): Coalition on $1.83 ahead of Labor on $2.25 and former Liberal MP turned independent Ian Goodenough on $8.

Perth (WA): Labor $1.05 ahead of Greens $8.

Farrer (NSW): Coalition incumbent on $1.03 ahead of independent Michelle Milthorpe on $9.50.

Patterson (NSW): incumbent Labor on $1.66 with Coalition on $2.37 and independent Philip Penfold on $10.

Watson (NSW): Labor incumbent on $1.03 ahead of independent Ziad Basyoury on $10.

Dickson (QLD): incumbent Peter Dutton on $1.38 ahead of Labor on $3.35 and independent Ellie Smith on $10.

Search:

Best prospects for independent and minor party success

December 4, 2025

Most winnable 2025 Federal seats excluding major parties across the 151 seats, ranked according to Sportbet odds, which has 39 seats with a non-major player on 10-1 or better to win.